NAPLES, FL – More than 300 REALTORS®, real estate professionals and local executives interested in Collier County’s economic health and its impact on the local real estate market attended in person or virtually on the Naples Area Board of REALTORS®. part (NABOR®) ninth annual economic summit, “A View from the Top”, on Tuesday, September 7th, 2021, at the Hilton Naples. Three top economists gave a qualitative insight into the factors influencing the economy and shared their analysis of the factors influencing growth and property sales in the near future.
The data-rich hybrid event began with a welcome message from NABOR® President Corey McCloskey, followed by remarks from event sponsor BJ Cottrell, who is the managing partner of the FIRPTA Group. Longtime summit moderator Jeff Lytle set the tone of the day by assuring attendees that they would get answers to questions about the impact the pandemic is having on the economy and whether it will continue to affect the housing market.
First, Dr. Brad O’Connor, Florida Realtors® chief economist and director of industrial data and analysis, takes the stage. After Dr. O’Connor had given a comparative overview of Florida and the local housing industry, Dr. O’Connor said data showed that the Florida luxury real estate market has improved more than any other price segment over the past year. He then referred to data from the United States Postal Service (USPS) which showed that New York had the highest number of residents who moved their permanent address to Florida in 2020. The USPS data also showed that new residents came mainly from urban cities and boroughs like Manhattan, Chicago, and Boston.
The presentation by Dr. O’Connor included a historical perspective of the price data. “Prices in Florida haven’t gone down in 10 years. But while the median closing price for single-family houses has apparently stabilized in recent months, the prices for condominiums have continued to rise. “
Dr. O’Connor added, “If all of the Florida homes were on the market right now, we would have an eight month inventory.” He quickly assured the audience that the current situation of house bank defaults does not have the same qualities as it did 10 years ago due to the stricter lending rules.
Dr. Lawrence Yun, Chief Economist for the National Association of REALTORS®, announced in a virtual presentation that the “work from home” trend will outlast the pandemic and predicted that it will continue to have a major impact on where people buy a home for years to come.
With a housing shortage in America, Dr. Yun points out that rents rose 8 percent over the past year. He also predicts that rents will continue to rise as house prices are also likely to continue to rise due to our inability to meet demand. In fact, he said, “A year ago home prices were 20 percent lower, so some buyers are being priced today.” Dr. Yun also revealed that for these prospective buyers, rental payment history is used as a factor in qualifying for a mortgage.
Dr. Yun predicts that property prices will continue to rise 5 to 10 percent in Florida and potentially up to 20 percent in the Naples area.
Most recently at the summit was Dr. Elliot Eisenberg, a political economist and celebrated public speaker who was a former senior economist with the National Association of Home Builders. Dr. Eisenberg, whose style of presentation brings humor into an often banal topic, made it unmistakably clear that “the above trend growth will continue until next year”. It showed several graphs that identified consumer behavior activity during the pandemic, including the increase in retail sales when all were in quarantine and how the service sector is expected to overtake retail consumption as the preferred way to spend money now as the Consumers are less reluctant to go to their homes.
Dr. Eisenberg said, “Under normal conditions, when you exit a recession, supply and demand will collapse. But not now. ”That’s because demand has skyrocketed as people are hungry to return to pre-pandemic consumer behavior, but the influential impact of the pandemic has resulted in all production being halted – both for the retail as well as for the service sector – and production cannot keep up.
Dr. Eisenberg said the stock market has averaged 10 percent annual return for the past 10 years, but predicts the average return could decrease to about 5 percent annually over the next 10 years. Importantly for REALTORS®, he said: “Household balances are spectacular. We want to spend and consume and do, it’s just that we can’t get people to do something [goods] and service [our needs]. However, if the [pandemic] the recession began, we were forced to stay home, and forced savings were created. As a result, these forced savings saved many people $ 25,000, which is why we saw an increase in first-time home buyers in 2021. “
In conclusion, Dr. Eisenberg, he doesn’t expect the Federal Reserve to hike rates before the end of 2022 – the Fed may be forced to hike rates before it wants to. “
The Economic Summit is a joint effort by the NABOR® Board of Directors, the Media Relations Committee and the Economic Summit Task Force, led by Rick Fioretti, Chair of the Economic Summit Committee.
NABOR® thanks its event sponsor The FIRPTA Group, technology sponsor Supra, program sponsor Stuart Kaye Homes, media sponsor SWFL Home Inspections, reception sponsor DR Horton and table sponsors: Gulfshore Insurance, Law Offices of Sam Saad III, Honc Industries, Old Republic Exchange, The National Association of Hispanic Real Estate Professionals (NAHREP), Women’s Council of REALTORS®, and Keep Collier Beautiful.
NABOR® is located at 1455 Pine Ridge Road in Naples. For more information on the Economic Summit, please contact Marcia Albert at (239) 597-1666.
source https://www.bisayanews.com/2021/09/25/nabor-economic-summit-experts-discuss-migration-and-regulatory-patterns/
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